Israel has dealt significant blows to Hezbollah, yet achieving a lasting victory may be challenging. The last time Israel occupied Lebanon, Hezbollah waged an 18-year insurgency that ultimately forced an Israeli withdrawal; another prolonged occupation could similarly be costly.
This past week has been particularly devastating for Hezbollah and the people of Lebanon. Bombs embedded in the group’s communication devices killed dozens and injured thousands, predominantly Hezbollah operatives, in what is widely attributed to Israel. Following this, Israeli airstrikes in Beirut eliminated two top commanders, and Israel reported bombing around 1,600 targets linked to the group, resulting in hundreds of deaths and significant displacement.
Israel claims its aim is to secure its northern border, allowing the tens of thousands of residents who fled during previous conflicts to return home. However, the effectiveness of these military operations in achieving that goal remains uncertain. Columnist Nadav Eyal from Yedioth Ahronoth expressed skepticism, stating that despite operational successes, there is no clear path to translating these into political gains or lasting peace.
Hezbollah initiated attacks on Israel shortly after Hamas's assault on October 7, seeking to divert Israeli attention and resources. While the group has threatened to continue its aggression until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, the likelihood of negotiations yielding results seems slim.
Despite launching hundreds of rockets into northern Israel, Hezbollah's recent responses have not resulted in significant casualties or damage. The group escalated its attacks by targeting Tel Aviv with a long-range missile, although Israeli defenses intercepted it without causing harm.
Military experts suggest that Hezbollah may still have more advanced weaponry in reserve, poised for potential future use.
Historically, heavy airstrikes, such as those seen in Iraq, Libya, and against Hamas in Gaza, have led to prolonged engagements requiring ground forces to achieve lasting objectives. Israel’s current strategy seems focused on creating a new status quo along its northern border rather than outright defeat of Hezbollah, yet this could also necessitate ground troops.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claimed substantial damage to Hezbollah's capabilities, but even if this is true, the group still possesses significant resources. Estimates suggest Hezbollah could have up to 100,000 fighters and a stockpile of around 150,000 rockets and missiles, some of which are likely being kept hidden to prevent triggering a full-scale war.
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