This Sunday, the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars will kick off Week 7 from Wembley Stadium in London. Both teams are seeking to turn around disappointing seasons, each sitting at a troubling 1-5 record.
For the Jaguars, the pressure is particularly acute. Head coach Doug Pederson is under scrutiny, with his job potentially on the line if the team’s fortunes don’t improve. Jacksonville has struggled, going 2-10 over its last 12 games dating back to the previous season. Star quarterback Trevor Lawrence finds himself in a tough spot, having won just one of his last 11 starts.
The Patriots are in a different situation. Amid a full-scale rebuild, they recently promoted quarterback Drake Maye to the starting position. After a tough outing in Week 6 against Houston, where he threw three touchdowns but also had two interceptions and a fumble, Maye is eager to secure his first career win.
Game Details
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 20
- Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Wembley Stadium, London
- TV: NFL Network
- Stream: fubo (trial available)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Jaguars -5.5; Over/Under 41.5 (via FanDuel sportsbook)
When the Patriots Have the Ball
Drake Maye’s entry into the Patriots’ lineup has revitalized their passing game. Prior to his promotion, the team averaged only 119.4 passing yards per game over five outings with Jacoby Brissett. In contrast, Maye threw for 209 yards in his debut, suggesting that the offense might be on the verge of becoming more dynamic.
Since preseason, Maye has demonstrated a capacity to stretch the field, completing about 9.1% of his attempts for 20 yards or more. This could be crucial against a Jaguars defense that has struggled significantly, allowing quarterbacks to complete 70.8% of their passes and an average of 276.7 yards per game—ranking them last in the league.
Key receivers for Maye include rookie Ja'Lynn Polk and second-year player Kayshon Boutte, while DeMario Douglas is expected to be a reliable option. Douglas has excelled at creating separation and caught six of nine targets from Maye last week for 92 yards and a touchdown.
When the Jaguars Have the Ball
Jacksonville's offense has faced challenges this season, ranking 22nd in points scored per game (18.8) and 28th in third-down conversion rates (30.4%). The team has also struggled in the red zone, indicating that Lawrence and his receiving corps need to improve their chemistry.
Lawrence’s recent performance has been underwhelming, highlighted by a Week 6 game where receivers dropped several potential touchdowns. The Jaguars have recorded the third-most drops in the NFL this season, totaling 15.
However, the return of tight end Evan Engram could provide a much-needed boost. After missing time due to injury, Engram caught all 10 targets for 102 yards last week. With a strong history as a reliable pass-catcher, his presence could be instrumental against a Patriots defense that has struggled to contain tight ends.
In the backfield, Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne is dealing with a hamstring injury, leaving Tank Bigsby to take the lead. Bigsby has been effective, averaging 7.2 yards per carry this season.
Key Matchup
A pivotal matchup to watch is between Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. While it’s unclear if Gonzalez will shadow Thomas, this matchup is intriguing. Thomas has emerged as a top young receiver, averaging 70.7 receiving yards per game and scoring three touchdowns this season. Meanwhile, Gonzalez has been impressive for New England, allowing just a 55.8% completion rate against him and a passer rating of 71.1.
Prediction
The Jaguars enter this matchup as 5.5-point favorites, benefiting from their prior game in London. However, this could be a favorable opportunity for the Patriots. Despite a rough loss to the Texans, Maye showed promise, and he’ll face a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed per play and dead last in red zone efficiency, conceding points on 76% of red zone trips.
While the Patriots’ defense struggled against Houston, it’s hard to envision a similarly explosive performance from the Jaguars’ offense under Lawrence. Expect the Patriots to capitalize on their chances, potentially securing a win in London.
Projected Score: Patriots 23, Jaguars 20
The Pick: Patriots +5.5
Additionally, for those looking to wager, the SportsLine projection model has identified a potential moneyline opportunity worth considering in this matchup.
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